VE Les ventes Pace est court de puissance allant en 2024

Les ventes de véhicules électriques aux États-Unis ont peut-être franchi une nouvelle étape cette année, mais une nouvelle étude montre que l’élan est faible en puissance et peut laisser place à une option « Goldilocks ».

Sales of battery-electric vehicles in the U.S. may have climbed above the one million unit mark this year but there’s evidence they’re stalled at base camp rather than sprinting to new sales summits.

The proof is a combination of hard numbers and harder decisions by some of the major automakers. Those decisions include General Motors Co. slowing plans for new EV introductions and delaying the rollout of a new generation Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV until 2025 and Ford Motor Co. cutting production of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck by 50% at the start of 2024.

Kevin Roberts, Director of Industry Insights and Analytics at auto marketing website CarGurus.com

CarGurus

“If you can get the price down to where the price between an EV versus a hybrid or internal combustion engine is almost at parity, or at parity, then a lot of the benefits of EVs can really help to take over,” said Kevin Roberts, director of industry insights and analytics at vehicle sales and research site CarGurus.com in an interview. “But at that kind of price premium as it stands right now, I think it’s pretty difficult for consumers to make that choice. So that’s why I think you’re seeing that little bit of kind of reassessment there. EV sales are up year over year and they’re going to surpass over a million units of new EV sales in 2023, which is record volume. It’s just not growing as fast as they had initially anticipated.”

Pat Ryan, CEO, CoPilot.com, an AI-assisted online vehicle sales site.

CoPilot

That sentiment was echoed by Pat Ryan, CEO of vehicle buying site CoPilot who observed in an interview,We’re seeing record sales, they’re less than expected and that’s simply because the auto manufacturers ignored the typical technology adoption cycle and assume that EVs adoption would somehow be different than the way people generally adopt technology, and of course, they’re not.”

A new study released this week by CarGurus illustrates how tough the numbers for EVs are—especially in comparison with those related to internal combustion engine, or ICE, vehicles, both new and used.

As the chart from the CarGurus “2023 Recap & 2024 Outlook” shows, average prices for both new and used EVs are significantly higher than those of ICE vehicles while new and used EVs are spending an average of nine more days on dealer lots than gasoline-powered vehicles.

Chart from CarGurus study « 2023 Recap & 2024 Outlook » shows price differential between new and used … [+] EVs with internal combustion engine vehicles along with how much longer EVs remain on dealer lots.

CarGurus

For used EVs, that extra time on the lot is translating into lower prices but Roberts points out that’s not necessarily good news.

“It’s great for consumers who are in the market now but if you bought a new or used EV a year ago, and you’re seeing prices dropped quite significantly, you’re going to be pretty upset on that front,” Roberts said. “I think that kind of uncertainty out there is adding some additional level of potential delay in demand for EVs.”

But the head of a company that produces sustainable chargers and batteries for EVs takes umbrage at stories and reports citing the price differential with ICE vehicles as an impediment to EV adoption.

Desmond Wheatley, CEO Beam Global which produces sustainable EV charging units and batteries.

Beam Global

“Comparably equipped electric vehicles are already on par and all are in fact, they’re cheaper by the time you factor in gasoline and maintenance and all the other things that you don’t have to do with an EV,” said Desmond Wheatley, CEO of San Diego, Calif.-base Beam Global in an interview.

Indeed, thanks to steep discounting pricing for EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles are converging according a report by Cox Automotive released Monday.

“In recent months, price parity between EVs and ICE has almost seemed possible,” wrote Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, director of Strategic Planning at Cox Automotive. “It is a complicated measure with plenty of variables, but newer products and higher discounts have brought down average EV prices, even before potential tax incentives. A year ago, the EV premium was more than 30%. Today, it’s less than 10%.”

Indeed for anyone hoping to land a deal on an EV, patience will be payoff according to CoPilot’s Pat Ryan who advised, “I think you’re going to see a lot of incentives on new EVs in the coming months so it’s not a good time to buy a new EV. If you you’re patient, incentives will come to you.”

Increased market share for new and used EVs is uncertain, with CarGurus predicting divergent trend lines through 2030 depending on consumer demand and government incentives or requirements as illustrated in the CarGurus graph below.

Chart from CarGurus.com study showing range of predictions for EV sales growth through 2030.

CarGurus.com

At best, new EVs could command 50% of the market by 2030 or could only rise to 23% from the current 8% by that year. The CarGurus forecast predicts used EV share might inch its way from today’s 0.4% of the market to either 4% or 8% in 2030 depending on conditions.

Beam Global’s Desmond Wheatley isn’t concerned with such predictions, arguing swings in demand should be expected.

“What we’re talking about is a less fantastic acceleration of growth than we’ve seen in the last couple of years which is quite different than a decline in anybody’s book,” Wheatley maintained. “I mean, EV sales are still up over 61% this year. We’re globally 14% of sales, in the United States 8% of sales. On every metric, EV sales are continuing to rise. Dramatically. I think it’s absolutely to be expected that we’re going to see some undulations in the pace of adoption.”

The market isn’t stagnant however, and many consumers who still desire a vehicle that’s more environmentally friendly but more affordable than an EV are increasingly looking at hybrids.

2023 Honda Accord Hybrid.

Honda Motor Co.

“They’ve gotten the cost to be more manageable in those, so areas where the people are still getting comfortable with electric vehicles, cost, range, charging, those are all issues that don’t exist in anywhere near the same way with hybrids so the hybrid market is actually the white hot market right now,” declared Ryan.

So hot, in fact, Ryan points out there aren’t many to choose from, citing at little as a 27-day supply of hybrids on Honda dealer lots compared with an optimal 60-day supply.

Right now hybrids would seem to occupy a sweet spot on pricing. Currently, the average listing price of a new hybrid carries a 9% premium compared to an ICE powered vehicle, according to the CarGurus study.

In contrast, the study found EVs carry a 30% premium, while used hybrids hold a 16% premium compared to a 43% premium for EVs.

Kevin Roberts at CarGurus likens hybrids to that “just right” choice in the Three Bears children’s story giving consumers a middle ground that’s just right between gasoline powered vehicles and zero emission EVs—at least in the short-term.

“I think hybrids have a real kind of, I call it like a Goldilocks window, let’s say, from now until 2030,” explained Roberts. “I think there’s a real opportunity for them to have their moment to shine.”

Much beyond that, he said, automakers will need to lean more on pure EVs to comply with government emission standards.

So while adoption of EVs in the U.S. is slower than automakers had hoped, there remains an air of inevitability about their eventual dominance, with Beam Global’s Desmond Wheatley declaring, “there’s no question in my mind that we’re going to see a total electrification of transportation.”

It’s just scaling that mountain at a leisurely pace.

 

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